Last year had plenty of ups, downs and plot twists. But what’s in store for 2019?
It’s that time of year again when the CPI team take a look at what lies ahead for 2019. This year’s predictions cover the move from top-down management to self-management, youth engagement and direct action, voice search, AI, trends in Latin America, and economic development.
Dive into our predictions below, do you agree/disagree? We’d love to know what you think is on the horizon for 2019.
Adrian Brown, Global
People will continue to question the authority of established elites and increasingly demand that power is distributed more evenly in society. For governments, this will mean embracing greater devolution, localism and participatory mechanisms that hand power back to citizens and those working at the front-line of public services. #2019Predictions
Danny Buerkli, Global
There’s a silent and almost invisible revolution happening in many governmental organizations across the world: they’re moving from managerialism and top-down control to enablement and self-management. My prediction is that we’ll see, hear and read a lot more about this next year. #2019Predictions
Nadine Smith, Global
We will see more people react in new and surprising ways to incompetence, unfairness and a lack of legitimacy from governments. Many will want to create mass disruption through non-traditional, more direct means of feedback. And with the benefit of social media to create new interest groups, especially among the young and disempowered, they will know they can bring about change without being in traditional party politics at all. #2019Predictions
Chris Oladogba, Global
The story format on mobile will continue to rise, expect Facebook and Instagram to start placing ads as you swipe through stories. I also expect continued growth in voice search. This is beginning to get real momentum now and soon it’ll become standard to include voice search in your digital strategy and the way companies optimise for search. “Alexa! Explain the Public Impact Fundamentals”. #2019Predictions
Katie Rose, Global
People will become more and more insistent that their voice is not being heard. This will have consequences for governments all over the world, who will need to think far bigger than just tweaking the edges of the policymaking process to “involve” people. We will start to see political parties and public sector leaders standing for this far bigger change. #2019Predictions
Margot Gagliani, Global
I think that this is the year where an increasing number of people will cease to hype ‘AI’ and get more specific: what do they mean when they say AI, and what can and can’t the technology do?” #2019Predictions
Elena Bagnera, Global
In 2019, more public service providers from around the world will take inspiration from the healthcare organisation Buurtzorg to transition to more self-managed and empowering ways of working #2019Predictions
Lena Kuenkel, Global
Waves of protests from citizens dissatisfied with government will become the new normal – the gilets jaunes in France are just the beginning. In response, governments will start to test new ways of engaging in a more direct dialogue with citizens, hopefully leading to improved relationships. At the same time, right-wing nationalism in Europe continues to grow, a trend that will also become visible in the European Parliament election where an increasing number of seats will be held by populist and Eurosceptic representatives. #2019Predictions
Jorge Hargrave, Latin America
South America will continue to experience heated political discussions on several fronts (in Argentina, Venezuela and Brazil especially). On the economic side, things will get better, with Brazil and Argentina managing to approve reforms that will boost economic growth and decrease unemployment. #2019Predictions
Catarina Caricati, Latin America
Current political and economic turmoil will continue in Latin America with even more conflicts between liberal and conservative ideas. Similar to the US, Brazil may threaten to leave many international treaties. #2019Predictions
Alison Lands, North America
U.S. economic indicators will continue to soften, but employment will remain at historic highs (for the time being). With few skilled workers available, and even fewer levers from which to further stimulate the economy, American policy leaders will face a series of long-overdue conversations about how to promote sustainable and inclusive growth heading into primary season. #2019Predictions
Dan Vogel, North America
In the U.S., our Federal dysfunction and nasty public discourse will get worse before it gets better – hitting a new “rock bottom” will generate a backlash from Americans wanting more civility and pragmatism from our leaders, leading to the rise of a third political party. Meanwhile, at least one former Mayor will make waves amidst the field for President, focusing attention on local leaders as examples for effective governance. #2019Predictions
Ryan Goss, North America
I predict a decline of working-class jobs and inaccessibility of high-paying jobs birth a new third political party rise in U.S. #2019Predictions
Megan Humes, North Amerca
Increased visibility into economic development tax subsidies and public anger will spark the creation of accountable development plans in a growing number of cities and eventually states. #2019Predictions
Andi Mirviss, North America
State and city governments will be renewed as ‘innovation hubs’ in the U.S. and ultimately push the Federal Government to adopt new policies. #2019Predictions
Alex Swick, North America
A handful of formerly impartial companies start to take stands on hot-button political issues like gun violence in the US. #2019Predictions
- The Future of Government is moral, says Victoria’s most senior civil servant: Chris Eccles tells us why he feels the moral dimension of government has never been expressly articulated.
- Less management, more care: a Dutch nursing revolution reaches the UK. Brendan Martin tells us how he plans to spread the Buurtzorg model to the UK and beyond and revolutionise nursing with the enablement mindset.
- Enablement: how governments can achieve more by letting go. The traditional service delivery model is increasingly being challenged by an enablement mindset
- The Future of Government. CPI is exploring what the future of government should look like and what it will do. Help shape what comes next.
- REPORT: Government must be made more human or risk becoming irrelevant – our new report shows how #FindingLegitimacy. Nadine Smith reports on CPI’s new report on finding the human in government
- Becoming a more human government – five behaviours for greater legitimacy. Magdalena Kuenkel reports on CPI’s new report on how governments can change their behaviour to strengthen their legitimacy
- REPORT: How to make AI work in government and for people
- How governments can secure legitimacy for their AI systems. We need to be realistic about the potential of AI. Margot Gagliani explores why it is not a panacea for all the world’s problems in our latest guide “How to make AI work in government and for people”